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The August jobs report could be a market-moving event, with the data impacting how investors see the economy and the outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect a 75,000 job gain. Daniel Morris, chief market strategist of BNP Paribas, doesn’t see a big market reaction unless the number is approximately 15,000 more or less than expected. “If it is a much weaker figure then you would start worrying about recession,” said Morris. “Alternatively, if we get a strong number then the argument would be we don’t need that cut anymore.” Move away from AI and megacaps? Kevin Simpson of Capital Wealth Planning said a rate cut in September is a near certainty and is seeing opportunity even before the jobs report to invest in stocks related to housing and real estate. “The first thing that comes to mind with lower rates is refi and the housing market. Home Depot , you think of that as a strong beneficiary of lower rates,” he said. Simpson also likes Caterpillar as a potential beneficiary of broader building that would come if September marks the beginning of a rate-cutting cycle. Jimmy Lee of Wealth Consulting Group also believes a rate cut this month is certain and sees a broadening of the market. Lee says investors should consider trimming winners in the AI and momentum trades. “We are actually still constructive on that. I am a fan of how well some of our best companies in the U.S. have done. I just wouldn’t keep doubling down in that area. I would make sure that you get more diversified,” Lee said. Matt Powers of Powers Advisory Group is also looking to play the market broadening with a focus on generating income through dividends. “We’re targeting dividend growers and dividend payers,” he said about the stocks he is considering. Two names he likes are FedEx and PNC Financial . They increased their dividend by 5% and 6%, respectively, in 2025. Barbara Doran of BD8 Capital Partners sees opportunity in consumer cyclicals including Lowe’s and Home Depot, big retailers like Walmart and Costco and payment giant American Express . “We’ve been seeing the trading down phenomenon going for the last year,” Doran said, noting she sees that as a tailwind for Walmart and Costco. “You have some $40 trillion in household wealth created since 2019 and pretty much full employment. There is a lot of talk about the lower income totally being squeezed, tariffs do not help them. But still, spending is fine.” Option plays Tom Sosnoff, co-founder of Tastytrade, is using the options market to play the jobs report. Sosnoff is shorting S & P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures. “I see the market moving to the downside from here until Friday,” Sosnoff said. “My viewpoint is based on just a very short term time-frame. I might change my mind by Friday but right now I’m short.” Sosnoff said he is also shorting a select group of stocks he believes have ‘gotten ahead of themselves’ including Microsoft and Roblox .
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