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Hong Kong
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Chinese refineries have placed new orders for Russian crude that will be shipped from ports that typically supply India, as demand from the South Asian country for Moscow’s crude slips following US President Trump’s tariffs.
At least 15 cargoes of Russian oil have been secured by Chinese refineries for October and November delivery, analysts said.
China and India emerged as the top buyers of Russian oil following Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which prompted Western countries to shun its exports.
Trump in July threatened to impose secondary tariffs on goods from countries importing Russian oil to pressure Moscow to end the war in Ukraine.
Earlier this month, he announced an additional 25% tariff on Indian exports to the US, on top of another 25% levy, for its Russian oil and gas imports. That led to the country sharply cutting down on its purchases.
As of last week, China’s state-owned and large private refiners had purchased around 13 cargoes of western Russian crude for October delivery and at least two cargoes for November, said Muyu Xu, senior crude oil analyst at Kpler, which tracks commodities and shipping data.
The 15 cargoes of oil, each typically ranging from 700,000 to 1 million barrels, will be loaded from Russia’s Arctic and Black Sea ports – supplies that usually go to India instead of China, given its distance, Xu said.
Reuters reported earlier this week that China had secured 15 Russian cargoes for the same period, citing analysts.
Xu said the buying reflected an “opportunistic” move, with the price of Russian oil remaining at least $3 per barrel cheaper than Middle Eastern alternatives.
“As for whether China will continue buying, I personally believe that right now is still a very good opportunity, because over in India, Trump is still pressing hard on them,” she said.
On Friday, following his landmark meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump told Fox News that he was not immediately considering retaliatory tariffs on China over its purchase of Russian oil, but suggested he may do so “in two weeks or three weeks.”
“Taking advantage of this opportunity while prices are low, I think more refineries will probably consider buying more, within a week or two,” Xu said, referring to Chinese refiners.
Last year, India imported $53 billion worth of petroleum and crude oils from Russia, according to data aggregated by the United Nations. Before the recent cuts, Russian supplies accounted for 36% of Indian market, making the country its largest source of crude, according to Vortexa, an energy data firm.
China has also increased imports of discounted Russian oil since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Russia provides 13.5% of China’s crude imports, according to Vortexa. Last year, China imported $62.6 billion worth of Russian petroleum and crude, the UN data shows.
Xu said China is unlikely to make up for the shortfall in India’s purchases of Russian oil, as India buys around 1.7 million barrels per day from Russia, while China purchases only about 1.2 million barrels of seaborne Russian oil per day.
“If India keeps holding off on buying, that’s going to be a real problem for Russia – China just can’t take on all of India’s volume by itself,” she said.
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