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Investors should consider gold as a hedge if the U.S. government shutdown drags on longer than expected, according to Wall Street analysts. “Gold continues to serve as an effective hedge against episodes of economic, political, and geopolitical risk and would likely perform well if a US government shutdown proves longer or more disruptive than feared,” UBS analysts told clients in a Tuesday note. Spot gold hit a record of $3,894.63 an ounce on Wednesday after Republicans and Democrats failed to reach a deal to keep the U.S. government open. U.S. gold futures for December delivery extended gains to hit an all-time high of $3,922.70. Gold tends weaken into and out of shorter shutdowns, Citi analysts told clients in a Wednesday note. But in longer shutdowns, gold catches a bid as uncertainty mounts, rallying 2% on average and holding that strength for a couple monnths, the Citi analysts wrote. It is unclear how long the shutdown will last . Some Wall Street analysts expect it to be brief given that just five Senate Democrats would need to break rank with their party and vote for the Republicans’ stopgap funding measure. “There are certainly five more Senate Democrats who are uncomfortable with shutdowns and will not want this to go on very long, especially if the threat of federal worker layoffs becomes more real,” Evercore ISI strategist Sarah Bianchi told clients in a note. “Given this, and the fact that Republican leaders already have expressed openness to negotiating on health care, we think the shutdown will be relatively short,” she wrote.
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