Investors might have gotten ahead of themselves when it comes to Tesla ‘s new robotaxi business, according to Goldman Sachs. Tesla began its robotaxi operations on Sunday, June 22, opening the service for a group of early-access individuals in Austin, Texas. In response, investors drove up Tesla shares more than 8% on Monday. But in a note published the same day, Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney cautioned against the optimism, reiterating a neutral rating on Tesla and sticking to a 12-month price target of $285, equal to 18% downside from Monday’s close. Shares of Tesla have tumbled 15% so far in 2025. TSLA YTD mountain TSLA YTD chart One reason for caution: While the commercial launch certainly sets Tesla up for success in the autonomous vehicle market, near-term scaling could take longer than anticipated, Delaney said. “The use of an Austin-specific tech stack, a Tesla employee being present in the vehicle (albeit on the passenger side), and the navigation/lane issue reported in the first day of use suggests scaling will be slow in the near-term in our view,” he wrote. “We also believe this suggests that it will be some time before consumers can use [Full Self-Driving] on their personal vehicles in a wide operating area.” Additionally, Delaney noted that “some degree of [autonomous vehicles] related profit was already in the stock.” Monday’s rally also increased Tesla’s valuation versus rival Waymo, a subsidiary of Alphabet , which the analyst said is already ahead of Tesla in terms of robotaxi operations. “With the move higher on 6/23/25, Tesla added > $90 bn to its market cap or roughly double Waymo’s reported valuation of > $45 bn as of October 2024 per Bloomberg,” Delaney said. The analyst pointed to the Chinese market as yet another potential headwind to Tesla’s promised profit margins. “One downside risk in this dimension is what has happened with the [advanced driver assistance systems] market in China, with many local [original equipment manufacturers] now including hands-free technology as a standard feature or at low cost even for mainstream vehicles (suggesting that if AI technology allows for many entrants in AVs, profits will be diminished),” Delaney wrote.
