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Freeport-McMoRan is likely to rebound from an environmental disaster last month at its giant Grasberg mine in Indonesia that led the copper and gold producer to cut its production estimates, according to UBS. The investment bank upgraded Freeport to buy from neutral in a report out Thursday, raising its 12-month price target on the stock to $48 from $42.50, implying more than 23% upside from Thursday’s close. “We believe the market is pricing in an overly pessimistic outcome for Grasberg recovery, therefore see the risk vs reward as attractive,” UBS analyst Daniel Major wrote to clients. Freeport last month declared force majeure at its Grasberg mine in Papua, Indonesia, in the western half of New Guinea, following a mud rush at the site that killed two and left five missing. Phoenix-based Freeport later slashed its 2026 estimate for copper production at the mine by 35%. FCX 1M mountain Freeport-McMoRan over the past month. The lower production forecast dented Wall Street’s confidence in Freeport’s growth estimates, but the effect of the environmental incident on its mining business is likely to be short-lived, according to UBS. “We have consulted various mining experts & they see the risk of a structural impairment to Grasberg’s production/value as low with water challenges relatively easier to resolve at Grasberg (up a mountain) vs many underground mines,” Major wrote. The UBS call is in line with the majority on the Street, where 12 of 22 analysts rate Freeport a buy or strong buy, according to LSEG data. Freeport shares rose about 2% on Friday, after tumbling 20.5% last week.
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