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Tesla posted stronger-than-expected third-quarter vehicle deliveries , but shares fell sharply as Wall Street analysts flagged looming headwinds ranging from the end of U.S. electric vehicle tax credits to continued pressure on profit margins. Quarterly vehicle deliveries through Sept. 30, when a key tax credit for EV buyers in the U.S. expired, climbed 7% over the same period a year ago. Yet despite the better-than-feared deliveries, Tesla shares tumbled 5.1% Thursday, cutting Elon Musk’s flagship company’s 2025 gain to 8%. TSLA 5D mountain Tesla over past 5 days Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan warned that demand could soften once EV tax credits and other promotions fade. “In Q3, TSLA reportedly offered various incentives to buttress deliveries, including up to $2K discounts on U.S. Y/3 inventory, 18 months of free supercharging on M3 in the U.S./[Canada] & other supercharging promo packages,” Langan wrote in a note. Langan expects Tesla’s fourth-quarter deliveries to weaken, with added margin pressure and lower regulatory credit sales leaving his 2025 earnings estimate about 29% below the Wall Street consensus. Goldman Sachs analysts also said the expiration of tax credits will “likely be a headwind” in the fourth quarter, but seasonality and new model launches could mitigate the blow. Goldman is looking ahead for positive catalysts in the next few months, including third-quarter earnings that could benefit from the stronger deliveries and higher energy deployments, as well as Tesla’s November 6 shareholder meeting. “If Tesla can give investors more confidence on the longer-term profit opportunity,” Goldman wrote, “that could help sentiment.” — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed reporting.
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