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China’s tech exports to the US have cratered, but demand from the rest of the world is keeping the East Asian giant’s trade machine humming.
In August, Chinese shipments of tech products to the US plunged 70% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, according to a Goldman Sachs analysis published Sunday.
The collapse followed the rollout of President Donald Trump’s new tariffs, including a 20% “fentanyl tariff” on all Chinese imports that took effect in March.
Meanwhile, other Asian economies filled the gap. From the fourth quarter through August, tech exports to the US from countries like South Korea, Vietnam, and India jumped 80%, according to Goldman.
Outside the US, Chinese tech exports didn’t suffer the same fate. Demand in Europe, Asia, and emerging markets kept growing.
“Tech exports to non-US destinations showed little difference between China and the rest of Asia, with tech exports from both performing similarly well compared to other sectors,” wrote Goldman’s analysts.
In July, China and the rest of Asia’s tech exports to non-US markets rose about 20% relative to the fourth quarter of 2024, “reflecting strength in global tech demand,” Goldman’s analysts wrote.
The tariffs underscore how Washington’s trade war is reshaping supply chains and driving high-tech decoupling with China.
But the divergence also reflects a bigger trend: a steady reordering of tech supply chains that accelerated during the pandemic and has been reinforced by Washington’s trade policies.
In 2017, nearly half of the US’s critical tech imports came directly from China. By 2025, that figure has fallen below 20%, Goldman estimated.
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Taiwan, Mexico, Japan, India, and Vietnam have gained market share in the process.
Asia AI exports boom
Despite the pressure on China, Asia is thriving in the AI-fueled export boom.
Overall exports from the region rose 7% in dollar terms through August compared to a year earlier, Goldman said. Technology products accounted for more than 60% of those gains.
Taiwan has been the breakout winner, with over 70% of its exports coming from tech — the highest share in Asia.
In August, Taiwan’s exports surged 30% from the fourth quarter of 2024, powered by advanced chips and servers that are critical for AI data centers.
Goldman’s analysts wrote that they expect the reshuffling to continue.
“Tech supply chains will likely continue to shift, further driving high-tech decoupling between the US and China and reconfiguring of Asia’s trade within and outside the region,” they wrote.
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