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Evercore ISI is moving to the sidelines when it comes to FedEx . The investment firm downgraded the shipping and transportation stock to in line from outperform. Analyst Jonathan Chappell lowered his price target to $243 from $249, which signals 7% upside from Tuesday’s close. Chappell cited ongoing demand headwinds that could affect FedEx’s near-term earnings estimates for his downgrade. He also lowered his FedEx U.S. ground revenue forecast. “Meaningful deceleration in retail sales in August and further weakening in industrial production in August creates a weak starting point for FDX’s F2Q26 volumes — demand growth exited F1Q26 (August) at the lowest since March of last year (2024),” Chappell wrote. “Consequently, we are lowering our average daily package growth for U.S. ground (year over year) by roughly 20 basis points in the near term, to +2.9% (from +3.1%) for F2Q26, to +0.5% (from +0.7%) for F3Q26, and to +1.2% (from +1.6%) for F4Q26.” FDX YTD mountain FDX YTD chart While FedEx is down 19% on the year, it has held up “pretty well” over the past three months with a 0.3% increase, versus a 16% decline in its main peer, Chappell noted. Therefore, he sees “little relative upside to the shares in the near term, particularly if estimates continue moving lower.” Another headwind for the stock, the analyst added, is that FedEx freight revenue appears to be weakening again. Although Chappell is optimistic on FedEx over a longer time horizon, he believes the company’s long-term strategy isn’t enough to combat these short-term challenges. “We believe FDX can offset some of these revenue headwinds with its network restructuring associated with Network 2.0, as the success of its DRIVE program over the last two years proved; however, cost efficiencies are likely to be back-end loaded for this year, and as the volume/revenue pressures accumulate, we no longer believe productivity enhancements alone are enough to fully reverse macro headwinds,” he wrote. Most analysts covering FedEx are bullish on the stock despite Evercore’s downgrade. LSEG data shows 20 of 31 analysts rate shares a buy or strong buy. ( Learn the best 2026 strategies from inside the NYSE with Josh Brown and others at CNBC PRO Live. Tickets and info here . )
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