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Tailwinds are building for Ferrari , according to Deutsche Bank. The bank upgraded shares of the luxury sports car manufacturer to buy rating from hold. Analyst Nicolai Kempf highlighted Ferrari’s upcoming October capital markets day as a potential driver for the stock near term. “Ferrari’s October CMD is set to unveil ambitious mid-term targets, incl. adjusted EBIT margins potentially exceeding 30% and a €3bn share buyback — representing 4% of market cap,” he wrote. “We expect positive news flow from the CMD and consensus earnings upgrades of ~5% for 2026.” RACE YTD mountain RACE YTD chart Over the longer run, Kempf called Ferrari’s new F80 supercar a “major catalyst” given its starting price of 3.6 million euros. The F80’s limited run will produce just 799 units. The analyst estimated that this single model could generate more than 450 million euros in incremental earnings in 2026 alone. “Crucially, this substantial earnings upside is not yet factored into consensus estimates, in our view,” he added. “At Ferrari, one car can make a difference, and we believe that car will be the F80.” This new model would be crucial in helping to drive Ferrari’s adjusted EBIT margins above 30%, Kempf added. He now forecasts profitability levels to exceed 31% this year, compared to over 29% in 2024. “Driven by strong earnings and a robust average cash conversion rate of over 40% over the 2021-2025 estimated period, Ferrari should continue to generate industrial FCF exceeding €1.2bn annually, from 2026 to 2030,” the analyst added. “This strong FCF generation supports our expectation for a new share buyback program of €3 billion between 2026 and 2030.” U.S.-listed shares of Ferrari climbed nearly 2% following the upgrade. Year to date, they are up 12.3%.
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